Make no mistake about it: Our advanced technology is posing a serious threat to national security as well as to the foundation of our democracy. No one said it more clearly than the brilliant physicist Stephen Hawking: “The creation of artificial intelligence may be the worst event in the history of civilization.” He’s not alone. SpaceX founder Elon Musk, who knows something about technology, says, “Artificial intelligence could start World War III.”
The application of artificial intelligence to military operations is so great that nations have formed units of cyber warriors. In other words, they are skillful hackers. In effect, we are in an arms race of a different kind. Because so much of what we do is computerized now, it’s all vulnerable. A system is secure only until it’s breached. You’ll remember that last year we saw the worst-ever cyber attack on the U.S. when our Department of Energy was hacked. A cyber expert reported that at least 50 organizations were hacked. Microsoft’s president, Brad Smith, said he was impressed by the sophistication and scope of the attack.
In their book “Cyber War,” Richard Clarke, a security expert, and Robert Knake explain what cyber warriors can do. For instance, they hacked into Syria’s defense system to reprogram radar to show empty skies at a certain time
so that Israeli fighter planes could attack a manufacturing plant. Hackers can also cripple a nation in various ways. For example, Russia shut down Ukraine’s banking system for a week. Think of the consequences of that in the U.S. We already know that our electric grid is fragile and vulnerable.
The danger of ‘deepfake video’
Add to these threats the developing technology that allows the creation of video that’s so real and convincing, you cannot tell it is fake. They’re now called “deepfakes.” Before long, with the advancing technology, a kid in his basement could produce one and put it on social media.
Two law professors with expertise in technology are waving red flags of danger. Writing in Foreign Affairs magazine, Robert Chesney of the University of Texas and Danielle Citron of the University of Virginia describe scenarios that could launch a war. Imagine the consequences of a video showing a nation’s leader announcing that missiles have been fired at another country, or of an ISIS leader announcing a chemical attack — videos that could cover the world in minutes and that cannot be determined to be fake.
Clarke and Knake warn about another aspect of this that’s especially frightening. Skillful hackers can sneak into a computer system without being detected. Once they can bypass a system’s security, they can go in at any future time and adjust programs to do great damage. Some systems in the U.S. may already have been breached without us knowing.
The threat to our elections
Besides the aspects of war, the available technology poses a threat to the functioning of democracy in various ways. As you know, U.S. intelligence agencies are sure that Russia interfered in our presidential elections, spreading false information and targeting individuals to receive specific information on social media. The truth may never catch up to the inflammatory falsehoods that spread like wildfire through social media because they’re more interesting and colorful. People are more likely to spread false information if it reflects their bias.
Cyber warriors in a hostile nation can sow confusion about our elections, discontent based on false information, and scurrilous lies about a candidate or officeholder, which can affect the outcome of an election. In their article about deepfake videos, Chesney and Citron say “the prospect is chilling” that the technology can disrupt our democratic elections, which are
the foundation of our democracy. “There is no silver bullet for countering ‘deepfakes,’” they say. Will we have a functioning democracy if we cannot agree on what’s true and lose public faith in the legitimacy of our elections? A believable fake video could destroy the career of a public official.
The world’s leaders are not ignoring these threats, but what can they do? The Transatlantic Commission on Election Integrity is meeting without fanfare to deal with the integrity of elections. The commission is led by Michael Chertoff, who was secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who was NATO secretary- general and a prime minister of Denmark. Deepfake videos are one of their concerns. They’re trying to push nations into a cooperative effort to deal with the threat to elections because no nation can do it alone. As they put it, “The future of democracy is at stake.” Can a warning be stronger than that?
In any event, the technological genie is out of the bottle. Algorithms, artificial intelligence, and the rest cannot be put back in. Those who are now waving the red flags of danger may be the Paul Reveres of our time. Are we listening? What will we do? What can we do?